In this essay, the author tries to look forward into the 21st century to divine three things: (i) What skills will researchers in the future need to solve the most pressing problems? (ii) What are some of the most likely candidates to be those problems? and (iii) What are some current areas of research that seem mined out and should not distract…

Several steps are taken to develop methods for analyzing systems that involve probabilistic causation. The basic ideas and distinctions are illustrated for systems with dichotomous variables. It is shown that these basic ideas have analogous counterparts in causal systems with continuous variables. By using a generalized conditional probability…

A simplified introduction to path analysis, this article discusses the following: (1) basic rules, assumptions, and procedures; (2) strengths and weaknesses of the technique; (3) special considerations; (4) examples of path analysis in educational research; and (5) guidelines for constructing diagrams. (MCG)

In his early exposition of path analysis, Duncan (1966) noted that the method "provides a calculus for indirect effects." Despite the interest in indirect causal effects, most users treat them as if they are population parameters and do not test whether they are statistically significant. Sobel (1982) has recently derived the asymptotic…

Given the theoretical complexity of the processes underlying achievement, it is not surprising to find limited investigation of the relationships between maternal employment and adolescent academic performance. The High School and Beyond 1980 sophomores data was used to assess the impact of maternal employment on seven latent variables: number of…

The usefulness of path analysis as a means of better understanding various linear models is demonstrated. First, two linear models are presented in matrix form using linear structural relations (LISREL) notation. The two models, regression and factor analysis, are shown to be identical although the research question and data matrix to which these…

Researchers are divided as to whether loneliness is a result of diminished quantity or quality of social interaction. Although results have been produced which support each position, few studies have examined the relationship between the two. To qualify the relationship between the quantitative and qualitative aspects of loneliness by exploring…

Defines structural equation modeling (SEM) and points out its relation to other more familiar data-analytic techniques, as well as some of the potentials and pitfalls of SEM in the analysis of developmental data. Discussion focuses on causal modeling, path diagrams, ordinary least-squares regression analysis, and powerful methods for model…

The study proposes using path analysis and residual plotting as methods supporting environmental scanning in strategic planning for higher education institutions. Path models of three levels of independent variables are developed. Dependent variables measuring applications and enrollments at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University are…

This book is meant as a basic and fairly nontechnical introduction to multilevel analysis for applied researchers in the social sciences. The term "multilevel" refers to a hierarchical or nested data structure, usually people within organizational groups, although the nesting may also consist of repeated measures with people or…

School interventions are often based on the assumption that such variables as self-concept and locus of control should have a meaningful impact on achievement. Yet research support for such influence is inconsistent. Because this inconsistency may be due to methodological problems, a study was conducted which used path analysis to determine the…

A path model of genetic and family environmental transmission was fitted to published twin correlations and to general cognitive ability data from adoptive and nonadoptive families in which children were tested yearly through the fourth year. Longitudinal genetic correlations from infancy to adulthood were modeled explicitly, as were effects of…

For a study, a path model was developed and tested representing variables that relate to sexual coercion. Specifically, sex, who asked, who paid, relational stage, past/current relationship, attitudes, drug or alcohol use, coercion strategies, and victim resistance were proposed and their effects examined. Data were collected by using electronic…

The overidentification of structural equation models with latent variables is discussed. The use of two- and three-indicator models is not recommended since such models do not allow a testing of the crucial assumption of unidimensionality among indicators in most cases. Models with four or more indicators may be more sensitive to departures from…

This study explores the utility of the theory of planned behavior for understanding and predicting the behavioral intentions of secondary science students. Data were collected from secondary science students enrolling in earth science (8th grade), biology (9th grade), physical science (10th grade), or chemistry (11th grade). Cause-effect relations…