Diagnostic assessment is currently an active research area in educational measurement. Literature related to diagnostic modeling has been in existence for several decades, but a great deal of research has been conducted within the last decade or so, especially within the last five years. The author summarizes the key components in the application…

Game theory is appropriate as a topic for an honors seminar for high school students. Matrices provide a model for analyzing certain situations involving conflict, and probability theory can be used to determine the best strategies for the players. Variations on the ancient game of morra are discussed. (MNS)

Discusses how the discovery of chaos has created a new paradigm in scientific modeling and how findings are contributing to changes in thought about many different branches of science. Includes explanations and examples of how chaotic behavior can be understood. (ML)

The historical development of probability theory is traced from its early origins in games of chance through its mathematical foundations in the work of Pascal and Fermat. The roots of statistics are also presented beginning with early actuarial developments through the work of Laplace, Gauss, and others. (MDH)

Methods of probability modeling to analyze rater agreement are described, emphasizing their basic similarities and viewing them as variants of a common methodology. Statistical techniques for analyzing agreement data are described to address questions such as how many opinions are required to make a medical diagnosis with necessary accuracy. Kappa…

The use of indicator functions is promoted as a vehicle for providing students with greater appreciation and understanding of the function concept, which might be good preparation for the functional concepts of probability and random variable. The use is seen to provide a reasonably accessible method of verifying set-theoretic statements. (MP)

Describes a model for geometrical probability. Presents two examples of basic theories of probability using geometrical probability. Provides three problems using the described theorem. (YP)

Some counterintuitive ideas in probability are examined. In particular, for sequential selection procedure, such as drawing cards, it is shown that there is probabilistic advantage to drawing first (or early) relative to drawing last (or late) in the sequence. (Author/MK)

In the bookmark standard-setting procedure, judges place "bookmarks" in a reordered test booklet containing items presented in order of increasing difficulty. Traditionally, the bookmark difficulty location (BDL) is on the trait continuum where, for dichotomous items, there is a two-thirds probability of a correct response and, for a score of "k"…

Summarizes 19 papers presented at the Fourth International Conference on Teaching Statistics held in Morocco, July 1994. Papers presented were in five categories: (1) empirical studies on students' conceptions; (2) theoretical papers on teaching and learning; (3) assessment; (4) using computers in teaching probability and statistics; and (5) data…

Describes a five-dice game, horse. Discusses the offensive player's strategy using the ideas of probability, such as counting outcomes, mutually exclusive events, conditional probabilities, zero sum games, and the use of computer. (YP)

Although many articles in the education literature recommend how to teach statistics more effectively, there is little published research on how students actually learn statistics concepts. The literature reviewed in this paper indicates a need for collaborative, cross-disciplinary research on how students come to think correctly about probability…

Uses the various strategies involved in baseball to illustrate basic concepts in game theory. Specifically discusses Willie Mays' base-stealing strategy and how it relates to probability and risk. Reminds students that expected results depend on adopted assumptions. (MJP)

This paper illustrates a model of the layperson's reasoning patterns under conditions of uncertainty, the "outcome approach," which was developed from analysis of videotaped problem-solving interviews with 16 undergraduate students. According to the outcome approach, the goal in questions of uncertainty is to predict the outcome of an…

The materials described here represent the conversion of a highly popular student workbook "Sets, Probability and Statistics: The Mathematics of Life Insurance" into a computer program. The program is designed to familiarize students with the concepts of sets, probability, and statistics, and to provide practice using real life examples. It also…