Although public policy debate centers on education and training (ET) as a primary determinant of economic success, this study suggests that instead the economy determines patterns of participation in education and training. Research over time shows that planned government ET policies have little ability to affect the economy because the effects of the economy on patterns of participation in ET are so strong. This study of ET trends and the economy in South Wales identified 31 potential variables, including year of birth, area of residence, gender, ethnicity, family religion, language spoken at home, pattern of school attendance, residence, family structure, type of secondary school attended, educational level, and socioeconomic and educational characteristics of parents. The study also determined that work-based training has not increased in frequency since 1945, remaining at just over 39 percent of all work episodes. The most important factor pushing workers to get further education was found to be lack of jobs. Study respondents noted that in a tight labor market employers ask for more credentials, whether or not the qualifications are related to the actual jobs, but when jobs are more plentiful, there is less emphasis on further education. The study concluded that for government policy encouraging further education to succeed, policymakers would have to entice or coerce employers to change their attitudes towards jobs, restructuring jobs to meet the demands of the new economy and thus actually requiring workers with more training. (KC)