Reviews three special-purpose forecasting methods (population-ratio techniques, Bell Telephone method, method of analogy, and multiple-factor method) and three methods of universal applicability (the cohort-survival, percentage- survival, and law-of-growth methods) to help administrators grasp enrollment forecasting technicalities. A comparison…

Describes a program for enrollment projections in sufficient detail to communicate the output generated and techniques utilized. Interspersed with the text are 14 tables. (MLF)

Small school districts have little leeway in predicting school enrollment. The basic tool of cohort survival technique can be augmented with the district census study and strategically located volunteers to monitor move-ins and move-outs within an assigned geographic area of the school district. (MLF)

Kerry and Murdoch (1993), analysing the essential characteristics of leaders and school principals, raised two key questions: (1) What kind of leadership will schools require to help them face the next ten years?; and (2) How equipped are managers in school to provide that leadership? Traditionally, aspiring school principals emerge from the…

The "baby boomette," occurring since 1973, differs from the earlier "baby boom" in that the maximum number of births, the rate of growth, and the size of the yearly increase will all be less. Also, the rate of decline will be slower and the length of the boomette will be shorter. (MLF)

Enrollment planning is the basis of all school system planning. Focuses on assessing the impact of a choice plan on student enrollment planning. Issues involved include home schooling, school employees' choice, and private kindergarten programs. Administrators are advised to evaluate existing forecasting methodologies. (MLF)

Investigated how family processes influence high school student dropout behavior. Used a sample of 114 dropouts from 1 California high school, 48 of whom were matched to similarly profiled continuing students. Identified factors that explain students' dropout decisions: permissive parenting, negative parental reactions to grades, excessive…

Examines 1,213 Tennessee elementary teachers' responses to 6 organizational indexes to determine effects of school organization and administrative support on teacher commitment. Finds novices needed organizational support for behavioral management and boundary tasks, midcareer teachers needed autonomy and empowerment, whereas veterans' commitment…