Background
Schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSDs) are associated with a range of adverse outcomes,1 2 which for some individuals can include violence perpetration. Violence is a leading cause of premature mortality and morbidity worldwide and a key target for public health interventions.3 Increased risk of violence perpetration in SSDs compared with unaffected control groups (including unaffected siblings) is robustly replicated in multiple observational studies using different diagnostic methods and outcome measures, with the important context that fewer than 1 in 4 men and 1 in 20 women with a SSD will perpetrate violence.4 However, for the minority where perpetration is a risk, implications for individuals, victims, families, clinical services and society (including economic impact5) can be substantial.
Preventative approaches can usefully focus on the early stage of illness, highlighted as a period of higher risk of violence perpetration which has a prevalence of around 10% in first-episode psychosis (FEP).6 7 Violence is associated with longer, more frequent hospital admissions, poorer function and victimisation,8 which underscores the importance of prevention.
The prognostic value of targeting assessment and intervention early in illness gave rise to specialist services, such as early intervention in psychosis (EIP) services in the UK, Australia, and Europe, and also Coordinated Specialty Care in the USA. The most recent evidence finds that these services reduce adverse outcomes, such as suicide and hospital admission.9 Early identification of needs around violence prevention would therefore align with an established focus on prognosis in FEP.
One approach to risk reduction, employed at scale elsewhere in medicine, is using prediction tools to support stratified interventions. Prominent examples are the Framingham Risk Score10 and QRISK calculator11 in cardiovascular medicine, which estimate individual risk to inform treatment decisions. Although no prediction tools in psychiatry are in widespread use, their potential application to psychiatric outcomes and settings is a key challenge,12 and could efficiently and consistently translate epidemiological knowledge into clinical practice.
For clinical impact, however, a prediction tool must be both accurate and clinically usable. Currently, only two violence risk tools have been studied in individuals with psychosis13: Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 (HCR-2014; a 20-domain instrument that prompts clinicians to make low/medium/high categories without probability scores) and Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG15; an actuarial tool of 12 numerically rated items including aspects of a psychometric tool (psychopathy checklist)). These are more typically used in forensic mental health populations due to their length (taking some hours for first completion), direct costs and lack of external validation in non-forensic settings. A new, scalable tool called OxMIV16 (Oxford Mental Illness and Violence) is a potential candidate for use in EIP services. It was developed and validated in individuals with schizophrenia spectrum and bipolar disorders in Sweden, with a focus on clinically available predictors.16 It performed well when tested in a separate geographical subset of data (with a c-index, equivalent to area under the curve (AUC) of 0.89).16 The model is transparently reported and freely available as a calculator with 15 predictors rated categorically (eg, sex at birth) and one continuously (age). Each item is weighted by a coefficient and combined with a constant in a manner that can be transferred to electronic health record (EHR) systems. It estimates risk of a violent offence in the subsequent 12 months in percentage and categorical forms (low/increased) and can be completed in minutes during a full clinical assessment.
Examining the transportability of OxMIV to EIP services through external validation is a key step toward clinical integration. This phase of prediction model research is often neglected17 18 but is necessary for translation into practice. This includes calibration,19 and if necessary, updating models to reflect different baseline risks in new settings.