The impact of geopolitics on international student mobility: The Chinese students' perspective
Abstract
In the last few years, international student mobility has been disrupted not only by the global health crisis resulting from the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic but also adversely affected by the rise of geopolitics. The worsening relationship between China and its western counterparts led by the United States and its allies has significantly influenced students' motivation and plan for overseas education. Based upon interviews with 75 students from leading universities in mainland China, this article examines how Chinese elite students evaluate the impact of the new geopolitics on their overseas study plans and opportunities. The study found that, due to the influence of scientific internationalism ideas and institutional habitus, interviewees underestimated the impact of geopolitical factors. Furthermore, unpleasant environmental factors (such as racial discrimination) caused by geopolitical changes are tolerable because most of the interviewees plan to return China after studying abroad. On the other hand, deterioration of Sino-US relations has substantially affected Chinese students' international mobility. Many interviewees, especially those majoring in science and engineering, were unable to obtain visas. Some of them gave up their study abroad plans, while others transferred to other study abroad destination countries such as the United Kingdom and Singapore. We also find that the perception of the power shift in the field of higher education shapes the students' decision making. This article critically reflects upon the international student mobility from the broader political economy perspective, discussing policy implications for future international education.
1 INTRODUCTION
International higher education and student mobility are increasingly shaped by geopolitics, especially when major powers are competing for global leadership in an innovation-led economy. In the last decade, we have witnessed governments across different parts of the world use internationalization as a tool to serve their domestic purposes, leading to political controversies that adversely affect international student mobility and interuniversity research collaboration with the growing influences of geopolitics (Bamberger et al., 2019; Marginson, 2020; Tran et al., 2022). Tensions or friendships in political relations between countries, the existence of geopolitical conflicts, and other factors have indeed affected academic exchanges, student mobility, cooperative research, etc. between countries (Amoah & Mok, 2022; Findlay et al., 2019; Fischer, 2021; Mok & Mok, 2023). In recent years, the relationship between China and the United States has quickly deteriorated. There is fierce competition between the two countries in technology, science, trade, and other fields (Allison et al., 2021). In fields such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, green energy, and quantum computing, China has become a strong competitor to the United States. China's pursuit of innovation in the technological field threatens the dominant position and strategic interests of the United States and is one of the causes of the deterioration of Sino-US relations (Kennedy & Lim, 2018).
In December 2017, the Trump administration released a national security strategy, declaring that the United States would strengthen its Review of visas to reduce financial theft by nontraditional intelligence collectors, with particular emphasis on visa restrictions for international students in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields (Trump, 2017). In June 2018, the US government further tightened visa restrictions on Chinese students, shortening visas for those planning to study aviation, robotics, and advanced manufacturing from five years to one year (Mervis, 2018). In 2019, the US intelligence agency pointed out that the Chinese government would use international students to steal US secrets and thereby harm US interests (Thurston, 2021, p. 89). In the United States, some politicians have even suggested a complete ban on Chinese students entering the United States to study. However, some policy researchers realize that this approach will only deepen the Chinese people's hostility toward the United States and harm the interests of the United States. Leaders of the US higher education sector also hope to ensure that Chinese students continue to study in the United States, because Chinese students are both an important source of income and important human resources for scientific research (Bader, 2018). After the outbreak, Sino-US relations further deteriorated. In 2020, Presidential Proclamation 10043 bans Chinese international students and scholars who have ties to China's ‘military-civil fusion strategy’ pursuant to F or J visas (National Archives, 2020). The tension between the two countries has not reduced during the Biden administration though dialogue between the two world leaders from the United States and China has resumed. The decoupling thesis remains influential in shaping the US-China relation, especially when the US administration is anxious of the growing influence of China in leading AI and related industries and technological advancement (Zhang, 2023).
Chinese students have been studying in the United States for more than a hundred years (Daly, 2021). For a long time, China has been the number one source of international students in the United States. In 2019, there were a total of 1,095,300 international students in the United States, of which 369,500 were from China, accounting for 33.73% (Allen & Ye, 2021) However, affected by the epidemic and geopolitical changes in the two countries, will Chinese students still go to the United States to study on a large scale? Some researchers believe that in the postepidemic era, the number of Chinese students studying in the United States may drop significantly (Wang & Miao, 2021), or in the words of Li and Lee (2022), ‘the future of US–China scholarly exchanges and collaborations is uncertain’. Another researcher analysed the impact of political tension between China and the United States on career planning of Chinese international students. The study found that Chinese students who want to stay and work in the United States will give full play to their agency and overcome difficulties to stay and work in the United States (Li, 2023).
Recent surveys regarding Chinese and Asian students' choices of overseas learning destinations during the COVID-19 pandemic period repeatedly show the major concerns of the respondents are closely related to personal safety and security when studying abroad. The rise of the anti-Asian movement that emerged during the global health crisis in the last few years has adversely affected Chinese and Asian students to choose the traditional destinations for international education, particularly when they are exposed to international media showing how Asian and Chinese students were discriminated against during the COVID-19 era. The double stigmatization and even triple stigmatization being found simply resulted from differences in Managing public hygiene during the pandemic time has deterred Chinese and Asian students to choose overseas studies in the United States, Australia, or other western countries (Mok, 2022; Mok et al., 2020; Mok & Mok, 2023). Now, we have entered the post-epidemic era, but the geopolitical crisis is more worrying than the epidemic crisis and may last longer. Geopolitical factors are having a substantial impact on higher education systems in various countries, including transnational student mobility, international scientific research cooperation, etc. (Csaszar et al., 2023; Shih et al., 2023). Beyond this, neo-nationalism is having an increasing impact on universities around the world (Douglass, 2021). In European countries such as Denmark, people are questioning the benefits international students bring to local society and calling for a reduction in international student numbers (Brøgger, 2023). In sum, under the multiple impacts of geopolitical changes, the rise of neo-nationalism, and the epidemic, people have reason to worry that international student mobility is facing a crisis. It is against this broader political economy context that the present article sets out to examine how Chinese students evaluate the impact of geopolitics on their overseas study plans. Specifically, how do Chinese students view geopolitical changes? How have geopolitical changes affected their opportunities to study abroad? How do they respond to this geopolitical change in their decision-making about study abroad?
2 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
2.1 Geopolitical theory and international geopolitical changes
Internationalization of higher education has experienced significant challenges in the last decade, particularly when international student mobility and transnational research collaboration are increasingly influenced by geopolitics and ideological conflicts resulting from the resurgence of nationalism when intense global competition in advancing high technology and innovation-centric entrepreneurship (Marginson & Xu, 2022; Mok, 2022, 2023; Tran et al., 2022). The extension of the international trade war between China and the United States, together with the call for decoupling trade relations for protecting national interest, has inevitably influenced student and faculty mobility. The interplay between internationalization of higher education and geopolitics has been identified especially when such processes are seen as part of a nation's ‘soft power’ influence (Altbach & de Wit, 2017). The quest for the global leadership in scientific research has further intensified the tension across countries; it has been vividly revealed by ‘war of technology’ between China and the United States together with its allies (Marginson & Xu, 2022; Mok, 2023).
Scholars may hold different interpretations of ‘geopolitics’. A core premise of this concept is that geographical factors play a key role in international relations and have an important impact on the actions of citizens, companies, international groups, governments, and other actors (Rizvi, 2022). There are different schools of geopolitical theory. Hegemony theory believes that the international order needs to be maintained by the hegemonic country. The stability, competition, and decline of hegemonic status will have different impacts on the international order. Realism theory holds that geopolitics is defined by great power countries such as the United States, China, the European Union, and Russia. The theory of multilateralism believes that different countries should actively cooperate within the framework of the United Nations to jointly solve the problems facing the world (Sachs, 2023).
1989–2008 is the period of the unipolar world when the United States was the sole superpower. Some scholars believe that after 2008, the world entered a new geopolitical era. The rise of China's economy is one of the key factors in this geopolitical change (Sachs, 2023). Accompanying the rise of China's economy is the rise of China's higher education. Past four decades, the scientific research strength of Chinese universities has increased rapidly, posing a challenge to the traditional centre-periphery structure of higher education systems.
2.2 The impact of international geopolitical changes on higher education
Historically, geopolitics has had a profound impact on the higher education system. For example, colonial powers such as the United Kingdom and France have shaped the higher education systems of countries such as Africa and India. The latter is a copy of the former in terms of the school running model (Rizvi, 2022). The literature on the relationship between geopolitics and higher education is sparse and fragmented (Nguyen, 2020).
First, researchers point out that higher education can become a means for countries to enhance soft power, achieve geopolitical goals, and exert geopolitical influence by attracting international students and becoming a regional education hub (Lee, 2015; Moscovitz & Sabzalieva, 2023).
Researchers have noticed that international student mobility has become part of the diplomatic competition between countries and is deeply affected by geopolitics. Moldova, which is between the EU and Russia, is a typical case (Wetzinger, 2022). Diplomatic relations will directly affect international student mobility. For example, the deterioration of diplomatic relations between Canada and China has had an impact on student mobility in both countries (Trilokekar et al., 2020). Quantitative research analysis shows that after Trump came to power, approximately 12% fewer students came to the United States during the first 3 years of the Trump Presidency (Song & Li, 2022). In other words, the previous neoliberal design of international students may be changing. Under the guidance of neoliberal ideals, international students are considered a source of income and potential sources of future human capital, and therefore international student mobility is envisioned as a global market. However, with geopolitics on the fringes, economic considerations may give way to political ones.
Due to the economic contribution of international students to the higher education system of some countries, international student mobility has also become a part of geo-economics and is linked to geopolitics (Csaszar et al., 2023). With the global rise of China's economy, the global patterns and geopolitics of higher education are also being reshaped, and scientific Research cooperation between China and Western countries is facing new challenges (Rizvi, 2022).
Despite the difficulty in measuring the impact of geopolitics on international higher education, the student choice and motivation for international learning would serve as a good indicator reflecting such impacts. This article sets against the broader political economy context to examine how Chinese students assess overseas learning during the COVID-19 pandemic, what major factors affect their motivations and choices for overseas learning destinations. This research pays special attention to the impact of geopolitical changes, especially changes in Sino-US relations, on Chinese students' decision-making to study abroad. There is very little research on this issue; Hou's study may be the only exception, but her study focused on Chinese students already in the United States, so we still know very little about the impact of geopolitical factors on the decision-making process of Chinese students (Hou, 2024).
The impact of geopolitics on international student mobility is an emerging research topic, and scholars have tried to explain this phenomenon using theories such as soft power and neo-racism theoretical framework (Hou, 2024; Mathies & Weimer, 2018; Trilokekar et al., 2020). The problem with these theoretical frameworks is that they place too much emphasis on the influence of external factors (for example, government considerations of soft power, new racism) and ignore students' perception of external factors and their own agency when making decisions. Informed by a study about the impact of political factors on international student mobility (Fidler et al., 2023), we propose a new conceptual framework which combines geopolitical factors and students' agency. We argue that the impact of geopolitical factors on study abroad decisions is mediated by student agency (Figure 1). First, the worsening relations between China and the United States with its allies has made Chinese students perceive as potential crisis affecting international learning and international research collaboration (Mok, 2023). The perceived crisis is shaped by political discrimination, restrictions, and freedom for a highly educated group. The anti-Asian and anti-Chinese movement during the COVID-19 crisis period, together with the adverse impact of geopolitics, has indeed affected international student mobility (Fidler et al., 2023). For various reasons, students' awareness of geopolitical changes is different, and this difference will affect their subsequent decision-making to study abroad. Second, traditionally, an important reason for Chinese college students to study abroad is that the quality of scientific research and scientific research training in Western countries is higher than that in China (Li et al., 2021). In recent years, the gap between the scientific research quality of Chinese universities and Western universities has been narrowing. China is becoming an emerging academic powerhouse. Students' assessment of China's scientific research strength will influence their study abroad decisions. In addition, students' grit in willingness to study abroad, calculation of benefits from learning abroad, and their capacities to afford the costs of study abroad will all affect their study abroad decisions.
3 RESEARCH DESIGN
This study adopted a qualitative inquiry, which can help researchers explore people's perceptions of specific sociocultural activities and phenomena (Merriam & Tisdell, 2015). From August 2020 to May 2023, we interviewed seventy-five college graduates of Chinese universities who planned to study in the United States. These interviewees mainly came from China's 985 Project and 211 Project universities where Chinese undergraduates studying abroad are mainly concentrated in (Shen, 2017). Among them, 54 interviewees were from 985 project universities and 14 interviewees were from 211 project universities. Forty-four interviewees (58.6%) were from STEM fields, and the remaining 31 (41.4%) were from humanities and social sciences fields.
We numbered these seventy-five respondents. When quoting the original text of the interviewee, we adopt the method of number + major. The content of the interviews comprised the interviewees' international mobility experiences, undergraduate education experiences, motivations for studying abroad, application processes for going abroad, perceptions of the SINO-US relationship, and the impact of geopolitics on mobility decision making.
Participant recruitment was conducted using snowball sampling. This study had two rounds of interviewees. The first round of interviewees was recruited through WeChat and other relevant forums. This study asked the first round of interviewees to recruit additional respondents to participate in the study and was referred to as the second round of interviewees. We established contact with interviewees through WeChat and emails. After informed consent was obtained, interviews were conducted face-to-face or via WeChat voice calls, Tencent meetings, and so on. The interviews ranged from 40 to 120 minutes. Each interview was recorded with the interviewees' consent.
The interview recordings were manually transcribed. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Informed by the geopolitical theory, the authors coded and analysed all the data, allowing for categories (themes) to emerge from the data (Braun & Clarke, 2022). The data-driven inductive approach and the deductive codes approach were combined. The findings are organized around emergent themes. Investigator triangulation was used to ensure the reliability of the data analysis (Flick, 2004). The authors examined and discussed the results of the analysis through group meetings to minimize bias and increase the credibility of the data analysis.
4 RESEARCH FINDINGS
4.1 Chinese students' understanding of geopolitical factors in their decision-making to study abroad
Students' decision-making to study abroad is a complex process, and its formation is the result of the interaction of self-perception, experience, external environment, etc. However, for a long time, personal factors have been considered to play a key role in students' decision-making to study abroad, and the degree of influence of external factors has often been ignored. Some studies in recent years have also pointed out that differences or fluctuations in student study destination countries may be caused by the international situation and national policies, but the impact of macroenvironmental and policy factors on different student groups is not always significant (Swanson et al., 2020). In recent years, tensions between China and the United States have intensified, which also heralds a new chapter in geopolitics that will increasingly be characterized by competition and confrontation (Schindler & DiCarlo, 2022). Subsequently, the United States has tightened its visa policy for Chinese students.
I am very insensitive to the political atmosphere. Last year, I thought that the people of the world were united, that the global village was about to be built, and that science was for all humankind … Now that I think about it, it is quite naive. (08—Astronomy)
I went to summer graduate school before applying, and I got the visa on the spot, so this gave me a sense of confidence at the time. However, I remember that Sino-US relations deteriorated when I was about to graduate. At that time, there was a little trend, but we did not realize that this matter would affect visas, and even if we realized it, there would be no way to solve it. (10—Materials Science and Engineering)
I have been influenced by two main threads during college, one is the situation between China and the United States, and the other is my views on my major. First, when I first entered college, I planned to definitely go abroad, because I felt that going abroad could broaden my horizons. At that time, Sino-US relations (despite the South China Sea incident) were still good. Therefore, at that time, I had no doubts about it. (21—Space Physics)
Because I decided to go abroad since my first year, I participated in UCLA's summer Research program during the summer vacation of my sophomore and junior years. But, my advisor is not at UCLA, which is more complicated. He is from NASA, and I cannot go directly to him. He was overly sensitive, and he could already see the problem at that time. He was a teacher in a NASA laboratory (blurred according to the interviewee's request), and he originally wanted me to visit it, because before, as long as I applied, it would basically be possible for me to get in, but I applied many times in those two years, but I could not get in anyway, and I was not allowed to go … and it was not to visit the interior, not for scientific research, but as a tourist. American locals can also visit on weekends. I applied to visit when I was there, but even so, I could not go in. (08—Astronomy)
Receiving education abroad is often an uneasy process, and international students face various challenges such as cultural and communication barriers and interpersonal difficulties (Sherry et al., 2010). Since the outbreak of the epidemic, with the undercurrent of populism and anti-globalization thoughts surging around the world, the international mobility of Chinese students has faced severe challenges. In a situation full of uncertainty in the geopolitical order, Chinese international students reassess their perceptions and self-perceptions of study abroad destinations. Compared with interviewees from the field of humanities and social sciences, Chinese students in the field of science and engineering majors are more aware of external factors such as geopolitics and security. As international tensions intensify, the policy of studying abroad in the United States has strict restrictions on them that have become the main or direct reason why they are unable to study abroad and are forced to make decision-making adjustments.
4.2 The impact of geopolitical factors on access to study abroad opportunities
Some of the interviews also revealed that geopolitical changes have substantially affected their access to study abroad opportunities. Among the 75 respondents, as many as 45 (60%) mentioned that international relations factors have affected their own or their classmates' international mobility.
Since China opened to the outside world, a large number of Chinese students have gone overseas to receive higher education and benefited from it. However, the current geopolitical order is facing a new round of adjustments, and China's international relations are facing severe challenges. Affected by geopolitical competition between China and the United States, the risks and uncertainties for Chinese students studying in the United States are increasing. At the end of 2019, the sudden global COVID-19 epidemic caused global student mobility, which was already suffering from political influence to encounter more severe challenges. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the United States further strengthened its technological blockade against China and implemented stricter visa review or restriction policies for international students from China.
From the perspective of universities, higher education institutions, as components of social institutions in various countries, are particularly susceptible to influence and even control of state power, and their internationalization strategies and activities are affected by changing geopolitical dynamics (Moscovitz & Sabzalieva, 2023). From the perspective of student decision-making, there are various uncertain factors in the decision-making process, such as changes in the political situation, adjustments to study abroad policies in the destination country, changes in the labour market, etc. These factors are always in the process of dynamic change.
Because the visa was never obtained, it was already extremely late when I got the visa, so there were a lot of difficulties during the process, and I kept thinking about it. In the end I felt that it was not worth studying abroad, and I just gave up. (31—Computer Science)
In April, the epidemic in the United States was serious. I was worried about my personal safety. This may be because of this consideration. However, in June, I just made an appointment for a visa. I remember that I made an appointment at that time. In June, visas were canceled …. At that time, the focus was on the issue of Sino-US relations. Objectively speaking, I had no way to go there. I could not go there without a visa. Putting aside the epidemic, I had no way to go there. (33—Computer)
I do not think it's possible … I applied for a visa twice but did not get it. I already have a' black history ‘, so I do not think I can apply for a US academic circle in my life. (10—Materials Science and Engineering)
After the embassy opened in April this year (2021), people from our school, Beihang University, and BIT schools came to apply for visas one after another, and they were rejected because of 10043. Only then did everyone know the impact of 10043 on visas for international students in schools such as ours. (69—Mechanical and Electronic Engineering)
Because you also know that this major (Computer) is considered a sensitive profession in the United States, and the United States is more dangerous now, so we gave up on the United States. (40—Civil Engineering)
The result of that year was that the majors of materials, electronics, biology, chemical engineering, and health are all sensitive majors. Our major should have the highest probability of not getting a visa, up to one-third. However, overall, it's just a random process, and we cannot tell at all who passed and why, and who did not and why. (10—Materials Science and Engineering)
Basically no one has passed, especially in majors like ours, like me who studied mechanics or did some more sensitive technologies and failed at all. However, there is also someone in our university who has passed. He studied architecture. He is now at Columbia. (69—Mechanical and Electronic Engineering)
It can be seen from this point that the deterioration of Sino-US relations has had a negative impact on studying abroad. The reduction in students’ opportunities to study abroad is reflected in the issue of visa obstruction. The most obvious trigger comes from the intensifying technological competition between China and the United States and the resulting technological blockade of China by the United States. With the deterioration of Sino-US relations, American universities need to be more careful in handling cooperation with Chinese universities, enterprises, or individuals while accepting scientific research funding support. This not only reduces the academic connections between Chinese universities and overseas universities, but also reduces the opportunities for Chinese students to study abroad (Altbach & de Wit, 2023).
5 LOOKING FOR ANOTHER WAY OUT: MOVING FROM THE UNITED STATES TO OTHER COUNTRIES OR STAYING IN CHINA
Because the United States is expensive. I originally thought it was expensive because first, the school was good. Second, if I could get an internship in the United States, I would think it would be OK. However, if you cancel my OPT, I would have spent a lot of money just to obtain a degree. I didn't apply to an Ivy League university, so I don't think it's that good and it's not worth it. (32—Accounting)
Actually, I did not like UBC at that time. It was ranked over forty because I didn't know that X University could not go to the United States … but because there was no way to get a visa, I ended up going to McGill University in Canada. (35—Biomedical Engineering)
I have looked away now. I cannot go to the United States. This is mainly due to political factors. There's no way around it. I am not in a hurry. It is already like this. There is no point in being anxious. There are plenty of places where I can apply. Where can I apply? No matter what. (35—Biomedical Engineering)
I always wanted to apply to the United States when I was a freshman, but then I was suddenly affected by Executive Order 10043 when I was a sophomore, and then I transferred to the UK. (42—Finance)
(Now) you only need to study there for graduate school, and after graduation, you can get a work visa there, which means you can work in the UK. There are no complicated procedures like before, and you can directly look for a job in the UK. The kind that settles down is a PSW visa. (43—Journalism)
What I wanted at the time was to go to the United States. Therefore, Singapore is just a guarantee … It was not until April this year (2021) that I learned that I could not go to the United States. The reason I did not go to the United States last year (2020) was because the embassy was not open due to the epidemic. However, for this reason, I felt that the epidemic would be over by this year, and I could go to (the United States). However, it was not until I was refused a visa in April this year that I knew that I would not be able to go, so I applied for Singapore later. It occurred in December. (69—Mechanical and Electronic Engineering)
Because of our major, it is not easy to get a visa. The offer from them (MIT) has been reserved for me until December this year. In addition, I also received the President's Scholarship from the University of Hong Kong, and now I feel that the probability of going to Hong Kong is high. (65—Mechanical Engineering)
In the field of computer science, China and the United States are the two cores … although China is still ranked second … so I think going to the United States is the only option. (3—computer science)
6 DISCUSSION
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, geopolitics has accelerated its evolution, and the world has entered a new period of turbulence and change. The international order has been impacted by a new round of adjustments in relations between countries, and Sino-US relations are facing unprecedented challenges and crises. Against this background, the international mobility of students is subject to more severe tests from the control of state power and geopolitical tensions. The decision making of Chinese students to study in the United States is intertwined with the uncertainty and risks brought about by the COVID-19 epidemic, as well as the complex changes in Sino-US relations in the geopolitical situation. Together, these factors have affected students’ perception of studying in the United States. Existing research has paid attention to the impact of geopolitical changes on international cooperation (Shih et al., 2023), but there is still a lack of research on how this change affects international student mobility. This study is among the first to analyse this issue.
First, geopolitical changes are reflected in higher education in the sudden change in US policy on studying abroad, and the strengthening of state power's control over study abroad policy. Represented by the implementation of Presidential Executive Order 10043, the ‘Protect Our Universities’ Act, the ‘Chip and Science Act’, and other laws, the US government's attitude towards Chinese students is increasingly protectionism and nationalism. During the epidemic, the US embassy and consulates in China suspended visa services.
Second, affected by the geopolitical competition between China and the United States, the US government is strengthening its review of visa applications for Chinese students to study in the United States. As a result, the opportunities for Chinese students to study in the United States have been reduced. Visa obstruction issues include the US government suspending the entry of H1B, L-1, H2B, and some J-1 visa holders and their families, denying study visas to Chinese students majoring in science and engineering, and restricting J/F visas, OPT, and international students.
Third, under changing dynamics, Chinese college graduates are reshaping their understanding of the factors that influence studying in the United States and reassessing whether they can bear and respond to the impact of external factors such as the epidemic, geopolitics, and international relations on their studies in the United States. Students' perceptions show that connections are being made between academic research, student mobility, and political sensitive issues. Especially for students from so-called ‘sensitive universities’ and ‘sensitive majors’ who are subject to visa policy restrictions, they have a deeper understanding of international relations factors.
It is worth noting that students' awareness of international relations factors is not as great as imagined. Most students do not pay enough attention to the influence of international relations factors when making decisions about studying abroad. Some students have not even considered it. We argue that students' indifference to geopolitical influences can be explained by new dynamics in the study-migration nexus. Many studies have pointed out that the relationship between studying abroad and immigration is becoming increasingly close (Brunner, 2017). However, for most of our interviewees, studying abroad does not lead to immigration and they hope to return to China for employment after graduation. Therefore, the host society is just a temporary place where they stay for a short period (1–4 years) during their study abroad, so they can tolerate the unpleasant environmental factors (such as racial discrimination) caused by geopolitical changes and consider them as a necessary price.
Fourth, affected by geopolitics and adjustments to US study abroad policies, some Chinese students have given up studying in the United States, and some of them have chosen to switch to other study destinations. There are two main directions of flow. One is to switch to other Western countries such as the United Kingdom and Canada with friendly visa policies. The second choice is to turn to neighbouring countries or regions in Asia such as Singapore and Hong Kong. Changes in the trend of studying abroad reflect that Chinese students currently pay more attention to the returns in their decision-making to study abroad. As risks increase, decision-making tends to be more deterministic and conservative. The reason is that increasingly Chinese international students are aware of the increasing political resistance to studying in the United States and the relatively easier availability of study abroad opportunities in other countries. Some scholars have observed that intra-Asia mobility is becoming a new mobility paradigm (Ahmad & Buchanan, 2016), and some recent studies have begun to consider whether Asia's increased attractiveness to international students may change the current structure of global international student mobility. The study found that the United States still has an unparalleled advantage in the study abroad market.
In addition, our fieldwork has caught some new and noteworthy phenomena. We found that some students have chosen to stay in China to study for domestic doctoral degrees or directly find a job after receiving offers from elite universities in the United States and the UK. As we pointed out in the conceptual framework of Figure 1, students' perception of China as an emerging academic centre will influence their study abroad decisions. For example, for some interviewees in the field of computer science, China's scientific research capacity in this field is second only to the United States, so they will give up studying abroad when they cannot obtain a visa to the United States.
Historically, the United States has benefited from welcoming the best and brightest international students in the world. However, in recent years, the international geopolitical landscape has changed dramatically, and the deterioration of Sino-US relations has had a substantial negative impact on student mobility between China and the United States.
Faced with the intensification of political conflicts between China and the United States, which have gradually spread to nontraditional security fields such as educational exchanges and scientific research cooperation, the voices of all sectors of American society are not unanimous. Some scholars have cited favourable evidence to question whether Chinese students in the United States are a real threat to US national security as accused by the US government and official think tanks. Harvard University President Larry Bacow sent a letter to then-US Secretary of State Pompeo and Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan, stating that strengthening visa review for foreign students and scholars from certain countries is not in line with the mission of US higher education (Bacow, 2019). The Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) at Georgetown University in the United States has detailed estimates that the number of Chinese students studying in STEM master's and doctoral programs in the United States accounts for approximately 16% of all graduate students in STEM fields in the United States. These data are lower than the proportion mentioned and worried in the US government report (Feldgoise & Zwetsloot, 2020).
7 CONCLUSION
Based on interviews with 75 college graduates who have the intention to study in the United States or have received offers from the United States, the paper presents some interesting findings. In conclusion, the present study has discussed how the intensified relations between China and the United States have affected the Chinese students' motivations and choices for overseas studies. The shortcomings of neoliberalism and globalization have fuelled the rise of nationalism and xenophobia. It is difficult to reverse the situation in a brief time. For a long time to come, geopolitical competition between China and the United States will remain the main theme, and the possibility of confrontation possibility is not even ruled out. To this day, the class action lawsuit filed by Some Chinese international students affected by Executive Order 10043 to the US Congress in May 2022 has still not been responded to and resolved. At present and for a long time to come, the flow of Chinese students to the United States will face great challenges. The lack of political mutual trust in the exchanges between China and the United States, especially the politicization of study abroad activities in the United States, has brought enormous uncertainties and risks to current and future Chinese students studying in the United States. Affected by geopolitical tensions and the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the number of Chinese students choosing to study in the United States has dropped significantly for the first time.
Although international mobility is not solely affected by geopolitics, we have discussed above that there are other factors, such as well-being-related matters and family finance, that would have affected the plans to study abroad (Amoah, 2023; Guan et al., 2023). Our above analysis has clearly shown that even though the tension between China and United States and its allies has begun to improve, the perceived crisis caused by geopolitics on the higher education migration has not yet reduced. Against the circumstance of worsening international relations between China and the West, researchers in the field of international education should keep an eye on the following issues: How long will this downward trend last? What impact will this trend have on global student mobility? These issues deserve further study. In addition, in the postepidemic era, how overseas study groups should prepare for the evolving challenges of globalization and deglobalization (Wang, 2020) is also a critical issue worthy of continued attention and discussion. In the face of geopolitical challenges, individual students, institutions, and governments must adjust their strategies for student mobility accordingly. This study analyses the strategies and actions at the individual student level. Future research can further analyse how institutions and governments respond to geopolitical changes.
AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
Wenqin Shen: Conceptualization; methodology; data curation; investigation; writing – original draft; writing – review and editing; formal analysis; supervision. Ka Ho Mok: Conceptualization; supervision; writing – review and editing; writing – original draft; methodology; investigation; formal analysis. Feifei Gu: Investigation; writing – original draft; formal analysis; data curation.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Open Research
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
The data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author. The data are not publicly available due to privacy or ethical restrictions.
